Net Zero: What’s the consensus?
A detailed look at the state of sustainability in the UK
It’s a strange time for sustainability.
On one hand, the Green Party have won a by election in the North of England with more than 40% of the vote. Net Zero remains the UK’s official government target and greenhouse gas emissions have continued to decline, nearly halving since the 1990s. Electric vehicles account for 10% of all those on the road and Autotrader confidently predict they’ll be more than 50% of the car parc by the middle of the next decade.
On the other hand, the Green Party have surged in opinion polls while talking less about sustainability and more about social justice and overseas conflict. Net Zero was – like the institution of the Monarchy or the funding of the NHS – an area of cross party consensus, but has now fractured: Reform say the targets would be ditched, the Conservatives say they are impossible. Amidst the turmoil of the Israel/US – Iran war, it’s prices of fossil fuels that are bothering UK consumers the most.
When the UK hosted COP in 2021 environmental issues surged in salience amid a swell of post-pandemic urgency and optimism. Last year, COP30 barely kept the climate ‘ship’ afloat. In a year since Trump’s re-election, the US has withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
So, where are we with sustainability – is it panic and reversal, or optimism and continued progress?
This long read - originally written by my colleague Mari Hamano in Q2 2025 - will answer this question in two parts.
Firstly, at a public and political level, we’ll explore the state of the Net Zero consensus. We’ll cover the politics of Net Zero in the UK and how this compares to other countries. We’ll also explore what the public think, and how we should interpret public sentiment in this context.
In the second part, we’ll explore what the Net Zero debate means for politics, consumers, and brands and businesses.
In addition to this report, on 26th March we’ll be hosting our next Trends Briefing webinar on the State of Sustainability in the UK. It’s free to attend and you can sign up here.
The State of Play for the UK
Sustainability has been an important issue for consumers and public policy alike over the past decade. The majority of the public support the net zero ambition and there has been cross party support for decarbonisation, with the UK looking to position itself as a global leader in 2021 when it hosted COP26 (the 26th United Nations climate change conference).
But has this started to change? Few people contest climate change itself, but net zero is facing stronger political opposition. In 2025, the new US president has been cancelling environmental policies and the new Conservative leader in the UK has said net zero is ‘not achievable’. Is net zero becoming a partisan issue?
What is the UK’s net zero target?
In July 2019, the UK Government (under then Prime Minister Theresa May) committed the UK to reaching net zero by 2050 to law. This means the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions will be equal (or less than) the emissions removed from the atmosphere. The net zero target is broken down into several phases, based on emission levels in 1990.
Reducing emissions by 68% by 2030
Ultimately, reaching net zero emissions by 2050
This push to reach net zero is a global one and is necessary in achieving the goals of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, where just short of 200 counties (including the UK) agreed to limit global temperature rises to 1.5°c by 2100. The net zero goal is ambitious, but that is the point; targets are not supposed to be easy, or there would be no point in setting them.
How is the UK doing so far?
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) 2024 Progress Report To Parliament warns that the country is not on track to reach the 2030 goal (of a 68% reduction in emissions compared to 1990).
“Urgent action is needed to get on track for the UK’s 2030 target”
Whilst the UK achieved its third carbon budget (2018-2022), with emissions (excluding emissions from the UK’s contribution to international aviation and shipping) less than half the levels in 1990. But now progress seems to be slowing. The report found that almost all indicators for low-carbon technology roll-out are off track, with rates needing to significantly ramp up. By 2030:
Annual offshore wind installations must increase by at least three times, onshore wind installations will need to double and solar installations must increase by five times.
Approximately 10% of existing homes in the UK will need to be heated by a heat pump, compared to only approximately 1% today.
The market share of new electric cars needs to increase from 16.5% today to nearly 100%.
The report called on the new Labour government to ramp up its efforts, resetting the UK’s direction.
Part 1: Net Zero - Consensus and Contest
The Politics of Net Zero
In the lead up to the general election in 2024, most of the major parties (Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats & the Green Party) all had net zero as a key parts of their manifestos. There were key differences in how they each planned to go about achieving net zero goals – the Lib Dems, for example, were more ambitious, with 2045 the target date, and the Green Party were unsurprisingly the most ambitious, aiming for 2040 at the latest. This is not including Reform UK, who, in stark contrast, pledged to scrap net zero to save money, increasing the UK’s dependency on oil and gas and taxing renewable energy.
