Slow Futures #37: Safe as houses
Trends in the quality of housing reveals one thing very clearly: our homes have never been better.
The Age of the YIMBY
We may be spending our first few days in a bold new age: the age of the YIMBY.
YIMBYs (‘yes in my back yard’, the opposite of ‘not in my back yard’, those that are pro-building) are in power. A centrepiece of last week’s King’s Speech – and of the Labour Government’s imperative to improve economic growth – is a reform of planning laws.
These new laws will make it easier to build by setting mandatory housebuilding targets, by reducing the abilities of local residents to block developments and by designating more parts of the UK, including the greyer bits of the greenbelt, as viable for building.
Discussions of the state of UK housing often focus on two things: whether we have enough homes, and whether or not the homes we have are good enough. There’s a consensus around the former; although views differ on what kind of homes should be built and where, it’s rare to find someone arguing that, actually, there’s plenty of homes in the UK.
The second area is more interesting. Many discussions, thought pieces and policy papers bemoan not just the amount of housing in the UK but also its quality.
In 2021 the Centre for Ageing Better concluded its Good Home Enquiry with a new report exploring the challenges faced by the 2m people living in homes that pose a serious risk to their residents’ health. A more recent report from the Home Builders Federation found that a higher proportion of homes in England fail to meet the UK’s decent homes standard than in Europe (using equivalent measures). Last year, the Resolution Foundation found that one in six people aged 18-34 were living in poor quality housing – where essential utilities weren’t working, where there was evidence of damp or where there was urgent need of repairs.
I don’t intend to cast doubt on any of these findings – all are thorough, well evidenced and compelling pieces of research that shine an urgent light on the extent and impact of poor quality housing.
However, there is little discussion in any of them as to how things are changing over time. This is important, because while there is currently widespread support for more housebuilding (a YouGov survey found that 62% would support a large increase in housing building in Britain, 52% would support a large increase in housebuilding in their local area) this could dissipate if the public perceive the quality of that housing to be shoddy.
That’s important, because the data reveal that the quality of the UK’s housing stock has never been higher. Our homes are safer and better maintained than ever before.
Safe as Houses
The trend data below are all taken from the English Housing Survey, which publishes detailed reports and extensive data tables every year. The most recent survey was based on interviews with, and dwelling inspections of, 28,000 households.
Firstly, and most importantly, how many of our homes pose risk of serious injury or death to their occupants? According to the latest data, it’s 2.2m, or 8.4% of all homes.
That’s a huge and unhappy number, but it’s also been in steady decline. In 2008, more than one in five homes were at risk of killing their occupants, including 31% of privately rented homes. Category 1 Hazards include the presence of lead in water pipes, excess heat and cold, asbestos, polluted drinking water, unsafe stairs or floors and the risk of fire, explosion and structural collapse. It is remarkable that fifteen years ago more than one in five homes threatened its occupants safety in this way.
By 2011 the proportion of unsafe homes had fallen from 23% to 15%. Three years later it dropped to 11%. Progress over the last decade has been patchier – and not always consistent. But the most recent data shows that the presence of hazards is lower than ever before.
The risk of damp is an ever present concern, not just during the famed English summer. Here, the data extends further back, but as with hazards, shows a similar story of long term improvement, albeit with a worrying recent stall in progress.
In 1996, 13% - or one in eight – homes in the UK had some kind of damp, mould or condensation problem. By 2011 there had been substantial progress and the figure stood at 4.6% - less than one in twenty. The decline continued, gradually, reaching a low point of 3.3% in 2018. Since then, the proportion of homes with damp problems has increased to 4.1% - or from 800,000 to over a million - a worrying rise. Recent analysis by the BBC finds that the increase in damp problems is especially concentrated in the private rented sector and seems to be having a disproportionate effect on children. The proportion of kids living in damp homes in the private rented sector has doubled since before the pandemic, from about 7% to 14%.
Finally, some trends are slow - they’re the kind that this newsletter celebrates with fantastically boring charts. The one below is an accessible reminder of how safe modern houses are. Most of us wouldn’t know how to define a Category 1 HHSRS hazard, but we all know what a smoke alarm is.
Most houses have had at least one working smoke alarm for decades, but even here the volume is slowly increasing, from about 80% in 2004 to more than 90% last year. More recently, the proportion of homes with carbon monoxide detectors has risen – from just 33% in 2016 to 57% in 2022.
What does this mean?
Houses have been getting safer, and are likely to continue to get safer in the future. Public health concerns – and tragedies caused by poor quality homes, poor maintenance or hazards – are likely to get rarer over time.
We overlook these gradual improvements because they’re slow and – if I can say this 950 words in to an article on the subject – a little dull. Data from an official survey showing a 0.9% fall in the quantity of poor quality housing isn’t going to stand out, even if it happens to cross your desk. In contrast, harrowing cases – such as the death of two-year old Awaab Ishak in Rochdale in 2020 – rightly capture our attention and force the public to demand better.
Regulation works. The majority of the decline in unsafe homes happened between 2008 and 2013, or in the first decade after the housing health and safety rating system (HHSRS) was introduced under the Housing Act 2004. In response to Awaab Ishak’s death, new legislation was introduced to force social landlords to deal with reports of mould urgently. The new Renters’ Rights Bill will extend this to private landlords. The decline in homes with damp problems should resume its downward trajectory.
That our homes are less likely to be a risk to our health is good news, but is perhaps setting our expectations for them a little low. The same English Housing Survey data shows a persistent rise in overcrowding. Our homes are smaller and the ratio of dwellings to people is higher. We have less space. This issue is worse amongst poorer households. This isn’t conducive to either happiness or health.
So – we finish this piece as we started it. We urgently need more housing, and the public are demanding it too. The age of the YIMBY is here. For the UK to get the housing it needs, we’ll need a public who are confident that the homes being built provide safety and security.
More than this
Trajectory will be tracking the age of the YIMBY - along with with a host of other trends - on our continually updated Horizon Scan, Now & Next. For more information on Now & Next, our data, analysis, trends reporting and bespoke projects, drop us a line at info@trajectorypartnership.com.